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GEORGE SMITH: ‘Know nothings’ won’t vote, give lots of power to those who will

Forty percent of us can’t name a single candidate who wants to be our next governor, according to a recent poll.

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The “know nothings” don’t surprise me. And right now, they don’t concern me either, because they won’t be voting on June 8. That’s the day Republicans and Democrats choose their gubernatorial nominees, and everyone can cast a vote on bond issues and tax reform.

Later in this column, I’ll tell you who is going to win on primary day. But first a few disclaimers.

My wife and I have contributed (separately or together) to four gubernatorial candidates: Republicans Les Otten and Steve Abbott and Democrats Libby Mitchell and Rosa Scarcelli. My sister is managing Les Otten’s campaign. I know and like most of the candidates. There is some real talent in this group, and some who won’t deliver the change we want, so let’s hope we choose wisely on June 8.

Of course, Eliot Cutler is hoping Republicans and Democrats nominate their weakest candidates. Cutler is an independent candidate for governor who will have the best chance of scooping up the ball and running it in for a touchdown if the party nominees fumble. My brother is helping Cutler. The Smith clan has many bases covered.

We will save Eliot for another day. He’s not in play on June 8. But before we return to the candidates, let’s talk about you.

Of the 60 percent who can name a gubernatorial candidates, more than half won’t vote on June 8. The choices are too confusing, you’ve got a golf game scheduled that day, you haven’t shot your turkey yet, you don’t understand the tax reform question, you’re happy to let others choose the party nominees — after that, you’ll start to pay attention.

The fact that you can vote absentee today doesn’t seem to have an impact on that predilection to procrastinate and avoid the tough decisions on Election Day.

Well, good for you. And good for those of us who are really paying attention, because we will narrow the field of gubernatorial candidates and decide the other issues for you. The 20 percent of us who turn out on June 8 each have five votes. We’ll cast a vote for ourselves, and for four others who won’t be voting. We will never be more powerful.

In the Republican primary, Otten has been sprinting since the race began, using his considerable personal resources to wage a professional campaign. In primaries, name identification is the key factor, and his is now very high, thanks to superb television ads produced by Maine’s-own Eric Potholm, one of the nation’s top media professionals.

Peter Mills, who won four counties while losing the Republican gubernatorial nomination four years ago, also has high name identification and bills himself as a candidate who can appeal to unenrolled candidates and even Democrats because he’s the most liberal Republican candidate.

Two very conservative candidates, Paul LePage and Bill Beardsley, will divide that constituency, including the tea party enthusiasts. Matt Jacobson and Bruce Poliquin don’t appear to have much support.

And then there’s the late entry, Steve Abbott, the long-time top aide for U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, who is scrambling to catch up with Otten and Mills.    

On the Democratic side, three experienced politicians are competing: Steve Rowe, Libby Mitchell and Pat McGowan. Rosa Scarcelli, an intriguing entry outside the political insider network, is a long shot.

If you don’t think your vote counts, think again. A handful of votes could decide the party nominees.

So, the real winners will be those of you who get informed and choose to vote on June 8. But it’s the horse races that await our bets. Here’s who I’m betting on.

In the Democratic primary, Libby Mitchell has distinguished herself as the only female speaker of the House and president of the Senate in the nation. She’s been endorsed by Bill Clinton, still a popular figure in Maine. It’s her race to lose.

Many Democratic insiders are betting on Rowe, who has been running for more than two years. The Baldacci team is lined up with McGowan. In a low-turnout primary, you can’t count out the outsider, Scarcelli.

In the Republican primary, Otten is now the favorite, with Mills finishing fast, and Abbott and LePage with significant constituencies who could — if they turn out — elect their favored candidate.

Don’t be surprised by a final lineup of Mitchell, Otten and Cutler.

Three names all Maine voters ought to know by Nov. 2.

George Smith is executive director of the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine. He lives in Mount Vernon and can be reached at george@samcef.org.